External Threat and Support for Secession: Evidence from Greenland amid U.S. Annexation Claims
International Organization (forthcoming), 2026
I exploit a unique empirical opportunity in which a salient U.S. annexation threat escalated in a shock-like manner between two nationwide elections in Greenland held three weeks apart in 2025. I find that the external threat reduced support for secession, and the effects were largest in more capacity-constrained places.
